Energy projection

The IEA prepares medium- and long-term energy projections, which are published in the Agency’s flagship publication, World Energy Outlook.

The latest edition, World Energy Outlook 2006 , released in November 2006, contains global projections through 2030 in addition to an unprecedented analysis of: impact of higher energy prices, tracking oil and gas investment, nuclear energy, biofuels, biomass use and Millennium Development Goals, and Brazil. It indicates that if policies do not change, global primary energy demand would grow by 1.6% per year from 2004 to 2030, an increase by just over one-half.

On the basis of present policies, global energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide grow at a rate slightly higher than primary energy use. Emissions are projected to increase by 1.7% per year from 2004-2030, reaching 40 billion tonnes in 2030. This is 14 billion tonnes or 55% more than today. Power generation contributes about half the increase in global emissions while transport contributes one-fifth.

Strong policy action is needed to move the world onto a more sustainable energy path. An Alternative Policy Scenario demonstrates that the energy future can be substantially improved if governments around the world implement the policies and measures they are currently considering. In this scenario, global energy demand and global carbon-dioxide emissions are significantly reduced by 16%. These policies are very cost-effective. On average, an additional $1 invested in more efficient electrical equipment and appliances avoids more than $2 in investment in power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure.

Resources:

Energy Economics: A Place for Energy Poverty in the Agenda?  2007

WEO 2006 Fact Sheet - Global Energy Trends  2006

WEO 2006 Fact Sheet - Alternative Policy Scenario  2006

World Energy Outlook Online

IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 - China and India Insights - Coal Trade Workshop 2007

WEO-India workshop in collaboration with TERI 2007